It’s Shakespearean Tragedy not Greek…

Firstly, I don’t agree with Government bailing out private enterprise regardless of how big they are, a market only works if bad businesses are allowed to fail.  I made that comment and the following explanation to a friend who had posted this image on Facebook outlining the massive funds injected into the Corporate world as a form of statement that Greece’s demands were reasonable and insignificant in comparison…

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That said, Governments will have entered into bailouts with the bankers outlined on the basis of providing cash and with an expectation of getting their money bank on a short term basis; to be fair I don’t know of the top of my head who and how much has been paid back yet. Lehman Brothers of course failed but they had a net trading profit when they went down so it wasn’t bad management it was cashflow ie a liquidity problem that broke them, they couldn’t get cash because the other banks had a run on their reserves…

I think people are missing the main problem in the Greece situation. Since the 2008 crisis, Greece has had bailouts provided on the basis that they undertake measures to get their economy back on track and despite all the discourse on austerity their economy was showing signs of recovery 5 months ago – that is until Syriza was elected and plunged them back into the depths of recession with their policies. This exact same scenario occurred in 1933 when Franklin Delano Roosevelt was elected on the back of the “New Deal” and plunged the US economy back into the Great Depression.

The point that is being missed is that Greece needs to take action to fix its economy, regardless of whether the current debt is forgiven or multiple generation repayment terms are offered etc; no-one in their right mind is going to give them money if they know nothing has been changed and that they will only have to give more money when the next tranche simply runs out.

So I went and did some research to find out how paying back the corporate bailouts had turned out…   It seems that 951 entities received bailout funds in the USA, to date the US Govt has recovered all the funds bar 9.38% including losses from companies that still failed in spite of the investment. The US Govt will also receive an ongoing dividend from the shares it acquired investing in these firms.

In the same time Greece has struggled to make their meagre repayment schedules and still require another bailout in the magnitude of $380 bn as has been suggested. They want more funds to pay the debt on the debt of the credit card without making structural change in their economy.  It’s massively different investing in someone who won’t help themselves and constantly asking for more money after their last lot went bad and you have no expectation of the next lot of good money being any different.

PrintI can’t see much light at the end of the tunnel for Greece; my personal opinion is that they are best exiting the Eurozone and re-floating the Drachma; they will have to do that or issue IOU’s in the next week if no bailout arrives as they have no liquidity left in their banks now! The consequences of that are likely to be hyperinflation and a need for humanitarian aid until such point as Greece gets control of their monetary policy and restore their economy. The only other alternative is massive injection of bailout, forgiveness of most of the debt (unlikely) and still have to restore their economy.

What is needed to restore their economy?

  1. Massive reduction of pensions and age of attaining a pension.
  2. A restructure of their progressive taxation system to start collecting revenue while maintaining an incentive for investment in enterprise.
  3. A broad based consumption tax to simplify direct taxes and collect revenue from everyone spending in the economy.
  4. Reduce Govt services and allow the private sector to deliver them ie a smaller public service.

The third element is essential because you cannot overtax individuals engaged in enterprise and eliminate the incentive to invest more. ie high taxation will drive expenditure to expense items and minimise taxation so Government still does not collect. You want someone to keep their money if investing in enterprise as that creates growth but if they take the fruit of their labour you want to capture revenue at point of sale. In short, the restructure needs to collect revenue, reduce Government expenditure and encourage growth.

NONE of these requirements are palatable as the Greek economy has sailed along on false pretences for so long it is difficult to accept the necessary change hence the OXI vote on the weekend, but whatever your politics, cold hard reality will ultimately dictate no other option for Greece.

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